On October 9, 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged slightly higher to 6.38% after a weaker 30-year Treasury auction and mild MBS underperformance. Rates remain stable within a narrow range as the government shutdown continues.
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On October 1, 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate held at 6.37% after weak private payroll data. Bigger shifts may follow when the delayed government jobs report is released.
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The odds of a government shutdown are climbing fast — now at 70% according to prediction markets. But the bigger question for homeowners and buyers is: could this chaos send mortgage rates soaring to 7%? In this video, I’ll break down the warning signs, what history tells us about shutdowns and interest rates, and what you should watch for in the days ahead if you’re thinking about locking in a mortgage.
📉 Mortgage rates are stuck in the mid-6% range — will they drop or stay put? In this week’s update, I break down the Fed’s signals, key economic data, and whether you should lock or float your rate now.
📬 This Week’s TRU | The Rate Update (Week of Sept 29, 2025) Mortgage rates held steady last week, but the outlook hinges on upcoming jobs data and inflation trends. August’s PCE inflation report (Headline +2.7%, Core +2.9%) reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance. Now, all eyes turn to JOLTS, ADP, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. 🔎 Inside this issue: • Mortgage Rate Update — live dashboards & analysis • Inflation Watch (PCE) — what it means for the Fed and rates • Special Section — Government shutdown risk and its impact on closings & mortgage spreads • Featured Video — Watch this week’s market update • TRU Forecast — should you Lock or Float this week? 💡 Tip: If you’re closing within 30 days, locking is the safer play given payroll volatility and shutdown risks. Longer horizons may benefit from cautious floating.
Affordability is finally improving this fall thanks to lower average 30-year fixed mortgage rates, slower home price growth, and rising wages. Learn why now could be the right time to buy.
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After touching yearly lows early in the week, the average 30-year fixed rose following the Fed’s rate cut—thanks to the dot plot and Powell’s comments. Still, mortgage applications just saw their biggest weekly jump since 2021 as homeowners reacted to earlier rate declines. Here’s what it means for buyers and homeowners.
